This cartoon introduces a new character: Preston, the non-actuary chairman.

Every actuary has worked with a Preston. He doesn't understand the methodology, hasn't read the assumptions, and couldn't tell you the difference between a best estimate and a point estimate. But he knows confidence when he sees it. And the AI has confidence in spades.

The actuary, meanwhile, knows that a model proclaiming 99.7% confidence in a £4.2 billion reserve estimate is not a triumph of technology. It is a very expensive way of being wrong with conviction.

Preston is delighted. The actuary is not.

Preston will be back. He has a lot of board meetings to attend and a lot of things to enthusiastically misunderstand.

The Politics Actuary is a weekly cartoon series about actuaries, AI, the profession, and the absurdities of overregulation. New characters and themes are introduced as the series develops.

Previous cartoons: #1 Record Investment | #2 Y-Axis Trick | #3 Prompt Engineering | #4 Transparency Request | #5 Define Everyone | #6 Long-Term Assumption | #7 Excel Relapse | #8 Holiday Risk Assessment