Further to this previous post, here are files for an updated version (2.2) of David Wilkie's model for #Covid19:

David writes:

I am an actuary, quite familiar with epidemiological models, which can be used in income protection insurance (IPI), which many doctors/GPs will be familiar with.  Using the IPI methodology I have developed a simple, but realistic, model for Covid-19 which can be run by anyone familiar with using Excel and goes onto one worksheet.  No lengthy complicated programmes. I attach the current release of files, which you can use or forward to anyone who wishes:

I am always adding: 

“This model may be of use to those who are comfortable using Excel and wish to play with projections for Covid-19.  So they may not appeal to all.  I am not making forecasts of what will happen. This is a tool that allows one to put in parameter values and see what projections come out.  Don’t be depressed by the results.  Things may well turn out much better than some of these projections."

 David Wilkie (contact email: david.wilkie@inqa.com)

The files are (you can also check each file for integrity - namely that it hasn't been modified via its MD5 checksum, see http://onlinemd5.com/ for example):

Cv19DailyModel_V2.2.docx

(MD5 checksum: 75BADBA2CD794EB796ED99D191135D37)

CV19DailyModelNotesOnUK_02.docx

(MD5 checksum: EF8A85D1626981BDFC59516D29276F8A)

Cv19DailyModel-V2.2.xlsx

(MD5 checksum: 174E8B545B4C3D6C2B78A51A0CD0F766)

Cv19DailyModel_UK_02.xlsx

(MD5 checksum: A69EDCD6D643EFEEB301DEAD60FBB37B)

COVID-19-ECDC-2020-03-26.xlsx

(MD5 checksum: 4AE04629467813487F02DF6D42B4B9EE)